Autore: Aurelio Insisa
In: Asia Maior. XXIX / 2018
Abstract

Relations between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China remained frozen, as President Tsai Ing-wen continued to refuse Beijing’s diktat to accept the 1992 Consensus as a roadmap for national unification. With no breakthrough in sight, both sides across the Strait remained firmly entrenched in their positions, relying on military signalling to communicate their commitment to their respective agendas. The escalation of the Sino-American strategic competition also contributed to shape the course of cross-Strait relations, as Taipei consolidated its security relations with Washington against Beijing’s threat. The support of the Trump administration partially balanced a string of diplomatic defeats that Taiwan suffered throughout the year, as the government of the People’s Republic of China further shrank Taiwan’s international space, poaching diplomatic allies and excluding the self-governed island from international organisations. Despite stronger ties with Washington, Taipei neither avoided the Trump tariffs, nor recommenced negotiations for a free trade agreement with the United States. Similarly, the maintenance of stable and friendly relations with the Abe administration was not sufficient to obtain Japan’s support for access to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement. Burdened by the need to implement painful structural reforms to the economy, and unable to guarantee short-term windfalls to an impatient electorate, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered a devastating defeat in the November electoral round, which merged local elections with referenda on themes relevant to the long-term success of the Tsai agenda. The elections saw an impressive performance of the Kuomintang but also raised concerns over China’s capability to infiltrate and affect Taiwan’s democratic processes. The magnitude of the DPP’s defeat appeared to have severely hindered Tsai’s prospects for re-election in 2020.

Aurelio Insisa | The University of Hong Kong | insisa@hku.hk